Leon Au on Queue Modelling

Nosokinetics

Modelling Queue in an Emergency Department

(c) Leon K Au

University of Melbourne, Melbourne Health and Australian National University; Government funding to look into ways of improving patient flow at the Royal Melbourne Hospital.

The first part looks at the way patients flow within the emergency department (ED). Approximately 200000 patient data records relating to patient arrivals through the ED between 1 January 2001 and 18 April 2005 were examined. Some preliminary results are detailed in the following two figures:

Fig 1: Distribution of the Waiting Time

patient numbers

Fig 2: The distribution for the number of patients waiting for treatment and bed admission.

Figures 1 and 2 show that more patients wait for beds than wait for treatment and the number waiting for a bed is much greater than the number waiting for treatment. Moreover the time spent waiting for a bed is greater than the time spent waiting for treatment! This was not news to those working in the ED, but the figures provided a simple and clear means of illustrating the issues facing patients in ED. Research on the possible correlation between the “rate” of patients being treated and admitted to the hospital wards according to the numbers of patients waiting will be featured in the next issue of Nosokinetic News.

For those seeking additional information, please contact leon@ms.unimelb.edu.au.

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