Newsletter Archive (screen-edited)

(c)Authors for content; Peter Millard, Roy Johnston for e-version


Introductory note from Peter Millard:

Welcome to our screen-edited newsletter archive. Nosokinetics is the science subject of measuring and modeling flow in health and social care systems. Thanks to IMS, full text of articles in Nosokinetics News can be accessed here.

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics improved the outcome of medical treatment. Similarly, the worldwide hospital bed crisis will only cease when scientifically valid methods are used to measure and model patient flow.

Nosokinetics News is circulated to collaborators and supporters interested in the development of mathematically and numerically tractable approaches to measuring and modelling flow. To be added to the mailing list email

The UK Nosokinetics Group:
Chair Prof Sally McClean, University of Ulster at Coleraine;
Secretary, Dr. Adele Marshall, Queen's University, Belfast;
Conference Organiser, Dr Elia ElDarzi, University of Westminster, London;
Australian Representative, Department of Health, Adelaide, South Australia;
Prof Peter Millard, Editor.

We are in process of developing a structured author and subject index, and are seeking feedback on how best to do this. For a look at 'work in progress', see below.

Issues in 2007:

Issue 6, December:
In this issue: Mark Fackrell. from Melbourne, concludes his three part contribution by illustrating the potential benefits of general phase type models. And Chris Bain, responds from a clinician's point of view to Mark Mackay's (Adelaide) contribution in the last issue concerning "How can we get through the door?". Thinking of that I recall the comment a reporter made to me about geriatrics in the 1970's: "It's just like pushing rice pudding through a sponge". We also have leads to several journal articles and a reminder for HSCMG Portrush 2008.

Issue 5, October:
Two Mark's, both Australian - Mark Fackrell, Melbourne, continues his phase-type tutorials; Mark Mackay, Adelaide, considers "How can we open the door?". From Thierry Chaussalet's group, FLoSC, a tool to forecast length of stay and costs in social care is described. Shola Adeymi, PhD student, reveals some mathematical mysteries in modelling pathways....

Issue 4, August:
Mark Facknell on exponential modelling; more on the Editor and 'Old and New Physics'; Martin Pitt (MASH) on ORAHS at St Etienne.

Issue 3, June:
Revlin Abbi on mining length of stay data for better understanding patient flow; Nigel Edwards at the IMA conference considers present problems and future challenges for modellers of health and social care systems; the Editor on 'Old Physics or New Physics'.

Issue 2, April:
Editor's introduction: Back to basics, getting the numbers not too wrong; Patel on the NHS Plan and performance assessment frameworks; Editors abstracts from the Journals.

Issue 1, February:
Adelaide 2006 Reviews; Eren Demir on 'A Method for Determining an Emergency Readmission Time Window'...

Issues in 2006:

Issue 6, December:
Qincheng Wang Memorial Issue: On November 10, 2003, Qincheng Wang, a PhD student at the University of Westminster, died. We dedicate this issue to his memory in recognition of the completion by Thierry Chaussalet and Haifeng Xie of his research objective...

Issue 5, October:
More discussions on queue-networks in hospitals.....

Issue 4, August:
Mostly summary of discussions on queue-networks in hospitals; published papers (modelling breakthrough?).

Issue 3, June:
Mostly feedback from the Adelaide conference.

Issue 2, April:
Overcrowding in a hospital emergency department; editorial comment (Turning Tide), research on the restructuring process, MASH news, more on queue theory, recent papers.

Issue 1, February:
Queue-based modelling: Pierre Levy, MacKay & Lee, GW Harrison, McManus, Long et al; Taylor & Dangerfield; Campbell, Seymour et al; there are many other abstracts; also a historic note from Roy Johnston. There also begins some input from the MASH group.

Issues in 2005:

Issue 6, December.
Simulating Accident and Emergency Services with a generic process model: Anthony Codrington-Virtue
Outpatient Models for a Diagnosis and Treatment Centre: John Bowers and Gillian Mould.
Perhaps more to come as the print version develops. Ed.

Issue 5, October.
Modelling Bed Costs for the Elderly: Barry Shaw and Adele H Marshall;
Bed Management at the Sharp End: Peter Olley;
21st Century Magic: Malcolm Faddy in Brisbane and Sally McClean in Northern Ireland have been unpacking the process of geriatric medical care;
At Craiova: 'Modelling the Elephant' workshop; Ruxandra Stoean; Roy Johnston, who works with IMS comments, Peter replies.
Additional notes from the Editor, mostly abstract of current papers.

Issue 4, August.
Christine Duffield on Nursing Workload;
Naoru Koizumi on a queuing model for 'upstream blocking' in acute hospitals;
Mark Joy on Measuring bed requirements;
Leon K Au continues on Modelling 'Rate of Admission'.

Issue 3, June, more Australian experience
Leon K Au on Modelling Queues in A&E;
Steve Gallivan on Can Patient Choice Degrade Health Systems?
Chooi Lee continues on Welfare state to Welfare Market, Part 2;
DM Fatovich on Access Blocks in A&E.

Issue 2, April, Australian Waiting List Experience
We have the first part of the Chooi Lee paper Welfare State to Welfare Market,
Mark Mackay on Surgical Waiting Lists,
and more between Carl Long and the Editor.

Issue 1, February, Hospital Planning Cycle Models
We have Derek Meyer, Carl Long, Salem Abdel-Badeeh and the Editor.

Indexing, and selections from Issues in 2004 and earlier

Highlights only, perhaps, from the earlier issues? This currently is 'work in progress'; we have begun the development of a cumulative author index and subject index for all screen-edited papers to date. Feedback on this would be helpful to the editing process. The entries are hotlinked to the papers; we are however not yet happy with the structure and layout.

We are indebted to IMS MAXIMS plc's sponsorship for enabling the website version to be developed. IMS is a significant supplier to NHS and has an ongoing interest in enhancing the scope of IT support in the NHS, especially in the areas of clinical knowledge and decision support. Accessing their web-site will give a feel for the scope of their work.

Some navigational notes:

A highlighted number may bring up a footnote or a reference. A highlighted word hotlinks to another document (chapter, appendix, table of contents, whatever). In general, if you click on the 'Back' button it will bring to to the point of departure in the document from which you came.

Copyright (c)Roy Johnston, Peter Millard, 2005, for e-version; content is author's copyright,