Miscellaneous

Nosokinetics

Additional Notes

(from the Editor)

Hitting the target

Locker, T. E. and Mason, S. M. (2005) British Medical Journal, 330, 1188-9:
One in eight patients who are subsequently admitted are moved out of the emergency department in the final 20 minutes of the four-hour target period. Data collected in April 2004: 83 departments, 428,593 clinical episodes, 22% admitted. Gaming, satisfies the Minister, what does it do to the patients?

Feedback is important

Taylor, K. and B. Dangerfield (2005). "Modelling the feedback effects of reconfiguring health services" / Journal of the Operational Research Society 56: 659-675:
Demonstrates the use of system dynamics models in evaluating the shift of cardiac catheterization in the UK. The research the importance of taking into account underlying feedback systems when changing hospital services.

The Emergency Department:
Medicine and Surgery Interface Problems and Solutions

Here is an online publication:
Report of a working party of the Royal Colleges of Physicians and Surgeons. It uses the terminology of modelling systems, but has no models in it. Rather it is expert opinion. Looks at the symptoms and proposes solutions without looking at the cause: bed closures. A bit like Oliver Twist sees the solution in more.

Australian cancer incidence: good news and bad news

Good news, the incidence rate of cancer in Australia is not expected to increase. However,.the ageing of the population means the number of cases will increase. A report published in August by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), forecasts that the annual number of new cancer cases will increase by 27,000 from 88,398 in 2001 to approximately 115,400 in 2011. Although not all cancer cases require inpatient treatment, the 31% projected increase has important consequences for bed allocation and patient flow. The 199 page report, “Cancer Incidence and Projections 2002-2011” giving details about projections for all cancer groups can be downloaded free.

Special Issue of Health Care Management Science (2005) 8 (3) 187 241

Baker, R. D. (2005). "Preface." Health Care Management Science 8(3): 187.

Bowers, J., B. Lyons, et al. (2005). "Modelling Outpatient Capacity for a Diagnosis and Treatment Centre." Health Care Management Science 8(3): 205-211.

Joy, M. and S. Jones (2005). "Transient Probabilities for Queues with Applications to Hospital Waiting List Management." Health Care Management Science 8(3): 231-236.

Gallivan, S. (2005). "Assessing Mortality Rates from Dubious Data. When to Stop Doing Statistics and Start Doing Mathematics." Health Care Management Science 8(3): 237-241.

Mackay, M. and M. Lee (2005). "Choice of Models for the Analysis and Forecasting of Hospital Beds." Health Care Management Science 8(3): 221-230.

Marshall, A., C. Vasilakis, et al. (2005). "Length of Stay-Based Patient Flow Models: Recent Developments and Future Directions." Health Care Management Science 8(3): 213-220.

Rees, M. and J. Dineschandra (2005). "Monitoring Clinical Performance: The Role of Software Architecture." Health Care Management Science 8(3): 197-203.

Young, T. (2005). "An Agenda for Healthcare and Information Simulation." Health Care Management Science 8(3): 189-196.

Footnote: Spreading the word..

Members of the Nosokinetics Groups presented sessions at four conferences during the summer months. Thierry and Kevin from the Westminster Group were in Amsterdam, Sally and Adele organised a session at the IEEE conference in Dublin, Elia and Florin organized the Craiova conference and Peter organized a session in Hawaii at the IFORS meeting.

Hawaii was a good opportunity for us to get together again to discuss what needs to be done. The picture (?) shows Peter Gary and Sally working hard in Hawaii. We all look forward to meeting again in Adelaide in April 2006.

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