Contents of December 2007 Issue

Nosokinetics

December 2007 Issue

(c)Authors for content; Peter Millard, Roy Johnston for e-version

Comments to rjtechne at iol dot ie;
bi-monthly newsletter of the UK Nosokinetics Group
On-line fill text (archive) at http://www.iol.ie/~rjtechne/millard/index0.htm
Previous issues in pdf at http://www.nosokinetics.org.

Editor's introduction

In this issue: Mark Fackrell from Melbourne , concludes his three part contribution by illustrating the potential benefits of general phase type models. And Chris Bain, responds from a clinician's point of view to Mark Mackay's (Adelaide) contribution in the last issue concerning "How can we get through the door". Thinking of that I recall the comment a reporter made to me about geriatrics in the 1970's "It's just like pushing rice pudding through a sponge." We also have leads to several journal articles and a reminder for HSCMG Portrush 2008.

HSCM2008 Portrush 18th -20th March 2008

The Second International Health and Social Care Modelling Conference

Abstract submission for oral or poster presentation has been extended to December 15th. Please submit your abstract by email to si.mcclean@ulster.ac.uk. Conference details topics and registration at:
http://info200.infc.ulst.ac.uk/events/hscm2008/organisation.html

Nosokinetics News: Where to next? Feedback needed.

In February 2008, Nosokinetics News should leave the nursery and go to school. This is our 24th edition. How should we proceed? What more should we do? What more could we do?

There are two sides to every question. Look at the Necker's cube. .How many cubes do you see? Last week I was discussing medical ethics with a group of eight MSc students. At the start only one saw two cubes.

Figure 1. Necker's Cube: How Many?.

There are two sides to every question. Nothing is ever black and white: even black and white. Our newsletter has two archives. The printed version at www.nosokinetics.org.uk and, thanks to Roy Johnston at IMS we also have an online version with an indexed author and subject list. See http://www.iol.ie/~rjtechne/millard/names.htm

Should we continue this symbiotic relationship? Is the double act, worthwhile? How should we proceed? Comments and suggestions welcome. Please mail to editor@nosokinetics.org. We look forward to hearing your views.

Figure 2. Symbiosis.

Talking of symbiosis, on the 25th February the Open Section of the Royal Society of Medicine is holding an evening meeting 6.00 p.m. to 8.00 p.m.

Don't want to; can't afford it; future of old people's medical care in the NHS: covenant to contract.

Joe Harris General Secretary of the National Pensioners Convention: Can't Afford it, Don't Want to: Government Policies for Pensioners Care.

Dr Chooi Lee; Consultant Physician, Kingston Hospital: Means Testing and the Bio/Psycho/Social Model of NHS care

Prof Peter Millard: Health and Social Care Systems: Symbiosis or Parasitism.

Arguing that a symbiotic relationship needs excellence at both ends of the spectrum of care 'Top Down' and 'Bottom Up'. Whereas, focusing on only acute aspects of care is parasitic to the detriment of both acute and chronic care.

Mark Facknell on Length of Stay

Follow the link to the full version of Mark Fackrell's tutorials where he describes a more sophisticated approach which could be used to model the length of stay in each unit in a department with a higher order PH (or Coxian) distribution. There is great hope for the future as the light is rising on the horizon.

Here are the diagrams; to get the text you need Acrobat.

Insert in text: Order 6 general PH distribution

Related text insert.

Figure 1. Order 6 PH fit to the length of stay.

Figure 2. Schematic diagram of patient flow in hospital.

"Looking around from the inside -.."

Dr Christopher Bain MBBS, Master Info. Tech., MACS (Prov), PhD Candidate (Management Information Systems) - Edith Cowan University Information Manager, Western and Central Melbourne Integrated Cancer Service, Melbourne...

Editor's comment - Here Chris responds from a clinician's point of view to Mark's article in the October issue. Chris describes the many internal barriers that need to be overcome before the Nosokinetics message gets through. Luckily, he keeps the smile on his face and remains committed to the cause. As sustainable, available, medical services for all citizens - young and old - is a goal worth striving for.

See also some abstracts of referenced papers.

We are indebted to IMS MAXIMS plc's sponsorship for enabling the website version to be developed. IMS is a significant supplier to NHS and has an ongoing interest in enhancing the scope of IT support in the NHS, especially in the areas of clinical knowledge and decision support. Developers of systems looking for market opportunities are invited to contact IMS at their UK office, or by e-mail to Paul Cooper (pcooper at imsmaxims dot com). Accessing their web-site http://www.imsmaxims.com will give a feel for the scope of their work.

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